Prediction glossary
PLAY-MONEY · NO REAL MONEYThe 30 words a new player meets on OmnidiaMarket, each defined in plain English. From probability and odds to liquidity, LMSR and props — read any single definition on its own. OmnidiaMarket is a free, play-money game: virtual tokens only, no real money.
- Prediction market
- A prediction market is a place where people forecast whether a future event will happen by trading on the possible outcomes, and the live price reflects the crowd’s best guess at the odds. The number moves as opinions shift, like a scoreboard for things that have not happened yet. On OmnidiaMarket you do this with free virtual tokens — never real money — so it is a game, not gambling.In the app: Every “Will Spain win the cup? Yes 17%” card you see is a prediction market — the crowd’s confidence, as a percent.
- Probability
- Probability is the crowd’s estimated chance that an outcome happens, shown as a percentage that reads like a weather forecast. “Yes 70%” means the same as “70% chance of rain” — likely, not guaranteed. The percentages of all outcomes in one market always add up to 100%.In the app: A price near 50% means the crowd is genuinely split and nobody really knows yet.
- Odds
- Odds are that same chance read straight off the market price — a higher percent means the crowd thinks an outcome is more likely. “Yes 64% / No 36%” means the crowd leans Yes but sees a real chance it does not happen. You are not reading a promise; you are reading a consensus guess that updates live.In the app: Because it is tokens only, calling the odds wrong costs you bragging rights, never a paycheck.
- Outcome
- An outcome is one of the possible answers in a market that you can back with tokens. In a Yes/No market there are two outcomes; in a multiple-choice market there are 2–10 of them. Exactly one outcome ends up being correct when the market resolves.In the app: “Who pays for dinner: Sam / Alex / Jordan / nobody?” has four outcomes — you back the one you believe.
- Position
- A position is what you currently hold in a market after making a prediction — your live stake in a particular outcome. If you backed “Yes,” you hold a Yes position whose value rises if the crowd shifts toward Yes and falls if it shifts away. You can usually sell a position before the market closes to lock in where you stand.In the app: Your positions are simply the calls you have got riding right now — tokens on the line, win or lose.
- Price
- Price is what one share costs right now, and on a prediction market the price is the crowd’s odds — 0.63 tokens = 63% chance. When people think an outcome is underpriced they buy, which pushes the price up; when they think it is overpriced they sell, pushing it down. The price settles where the whole crowd’s confidence balances out.In the app: That is why we display the price as a percent — it is the cleanest read on what everyone really thinks.
- Liquidity
- Liquidity is how much trading activity a market has — how easily you can make a prediction without your single trade swinging the number wildly. A busy market is “liquid” with steady prices; a brand-new market with two players is “thin,” so one big trade moves it a lot. OmnidiaMarket keeps even a thin market priced (see Market maker).In the app: In a thin market, being early just means you move the number more — worth extra bragging rights, not a bug.
- Market maker (LMSR)
- A market maker is an automated system that always quotes you a fair price to back an outcome, even when no other human is trading right now. OmnidiaMarket uses one called LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) — think of a tireless vending machine for predictions that adjusts the price up or down based on demand. The math keeps prices between 0% and 100%, all outcomes adding to 100%, and nobody able to game it for a free win.In the app: It is why a market about your friend’s exam is fun from prediction number one — you never wait for someone to take the other side.
- Volume
- Volume is the total number of tokens traded in a market, and it tells you how seriously to take the odds. High volume means lots of players have weighed in, so the number is more trustworthy; low volume means treat it as an early, shakier guess. Volume is also one of the signals used to rank markets, alongside how new and how active they are.In the app: Glance at volume to know whether a “73%” is the considered crowd or just two friends arguing.
- Resolution
- Resolution is the moment a market’s real-world result is declared, so a correct outcome can be locked in. It is the ref blowing the final whistle: once the event has actually happened, the market is marked with the true answer. After resolution, the market settles and correct calls are paid in tokens.In the app: The market creator (or a trusted resolver) confirms the result — clear questions with one obvious answer resolve cleanest.
- Settlement
- Settlement is what happens right after resolution: every winning share is paid out in tokens and the market is closed for good. If you held the correct outcome, each of your shares is worth 1 token; if you held a wrong outcome, those shares are worth 0. It all happens in virtual tokens, so settlement is bragging rights and a leaderboard bump, never a cash prize.In the app: Settlement is the “results are in” moment — the satisfying part where being right finally pays off in tokens.
- Void / refund
- A void is a cancelled market — usually because the question turned out to be unclear or the event did not happen as written — and everyone simply gets their tokens back. Nobody wins and nobody loses; a refund returns your stake exactly as it was. It is the safety valve that keeps a broken or ambiguous market from punishing anyone.In the app: If a market cannot be fairly resolved, it voids and refunds — no harm done, since it is only tokens anyway.
- Binary market
- A binary market is a Yes/No market with exactly two outcomes — a coin flip you can price. “Will Dave show up before 9pm? Yes / No” is binary, and the two percentages always add up to 100%. It is the simplest market to make and the fastest to read.In the app: Binary markets are the bread and butter — one clear question, two answers, instant to call.
- Multiple-choice market
- A multiple-choice market has between 2 and 10 outcomes instead of just Yes/No — a race with several runners. “Who wins the group: France / Brazil / England / a surprise?” is multiple-choice, and all the options’ percentages still add up to 100%. Use it whenever a question has more than two reasonable answers.In the app: Great for “who does X” questions — pick the runner you back and watch the field move.
- Prop
- A prop is a prediction on a detail of an event rather than just who wins — number of cards, total corners, first goalscorer, exact minute, exact final score. Big platforms list a handful of props; OmnidiaMarket leans into the deepest set anywhere, which is the whole point of its public side. Props are where you flex real knowledge instead of just picking the favourite.In the app: Props are the side-quests, not just the final boss — and they are our public-mode edge. It is only tokens.
- Trending
- Trending is the sort that surfaces the markets that are hot right now, based on recent activity and how fast they are moving. It is the “what is everyone calling at this moment” shelf — the markets pulling the most predictions today. It mixes volume, a trend score, and recency so fresh action rises.In the app: Tap Trending during a big match to find the markets the crowd is piling into live.
- Closing soon
- Closing soon is the sort that shows markets about to lock — your last chance to make a call before predictions freeze. It surfaces time-sensitive markets so you do not miss the window on something you have a read on. Once a market closes, you can watch but you cannot change your prediction.In the app: Check Closing soon for the “speak now” markets — last call before they lock.
- Closing date
- The closing date is the moment a market stops accepting predictions and everyone’s calls are locked in. After it passes, prices freeze and you simply wait for the real-world result and resolution. It is set by the creator when the market is made, separate from the resolution date.In the app: Set a closing date that lands before the event so nobody can predict once the answer is obvious.
- Leaderboard
- A leaderboard is the high-score table that ranks players by their token totals — the arcade scoreboard for predicting. There is a global board and a board inside each community and private room, so you can chase rank against the world or just your group chat. Climbing it is the main reward, since tokens themselves are never redeemable.In the app: The leaderboard is the flex — being right out loud, ranked, for everyone in the room to see.
- Streak
- A streak is a run of consecutive correct calls or consecutive days you have shown up — a common way prediction games track momentum. A hot streak is a bragging point and a sign you are reading the crowd well. It is all for status; there is nothing real riding on it.In the app: A streak is a badge worth bragging about — a run of calls you got right, on the record.
- Daily grant
- A daily grant is free play-money tokens made available to keep a play-money game playable forever without spending real money. Because the supply is free and virtual, you can predict boldly without risking a thing. New accounts start with a free stack of tokens.In the app: The idea is simple: the tokens are free, so the game stays free and risk-free.
- Play-money token
- A play-money token is OmnidiaMarket’s in-app virtual currency — like arcade tokens or board-game money — with no real-world cash value and no way to cash out. You get tokens free for playing and spend them to back outcomes; being right earns more, being wrong costs only pride. Optional cosmetic items can be bought with real money, but tokens themselves are never sold for an edge or redeemed for cash.In the app: Tokens are the scoreboard, not a prize — which is exactly why this is a game and not gambling.
- Community
- A community is a public topic hub — Formula 1, politics, swimming, crypto, gaming, any niche — that holds its own prediction markets and its own leaderboard. It is like a forum with a scoreboard: join the topics you care about, predict the events inside them, and climb that community’s board. Anyone can create a community.In the app: Find your people by topic, then out-predict them on the events only your corner of the world cares about.
- Private room
- A private room is an invite-only group where you and your friends make playful markets about each other’s real lives — “will she pass the exam?”, “how many beers by the final?” It is a group chat that keeps score: only people with the invite code can see or join, and what happens inside stays between you.In the app: Drop a market in the room, paste the code in the chat, and watch friends defend their honour with tokens.
- Invite code
- An invite code is the short code that lets a friend into your private room — the key to the door. You share it in your group chat, they enter it in the app, and they are in to see and join your markets. It keeps private rooms genuinely private: no code, no entry.In the app: One code, pasted into the chat, turns “you had to be there” into “you are all in here now.”
- Lock
- “Lock” is slang for a prediction you are extremely confident in — the call you would stake everything on, if there were anything real to stake. It is pure conviction talk: “England to win is a lock.” Say it loud, then back it — but remember it is only tokens, so a “lock” that misses costs bragging rights, nothing more.In the app: Call your lock, screenshot it, and let the group chat hold you to it. It is only tokens.
- Chalk
- “Chalk” is slang for the heavy favourite — the safe, “obvious” pick the crowd already expects to happen. Backing the chalk is low-risk and low-flex: you are probably right, but nobody is impressed. The opposite of chalk is the longshot.In the app: Ride the chalk for a steady leaderboard climb, or fade it for the highlight-reel call. It is only tokens.
- Longshot
- “Longshot” is slang for the underdog — an outcome the crowd thinks is unlikely, priced low, with big bragging rights if it lands. Calling a longshot and being right is the most satisfying flex on the board, precisely because almost everyone faded it. The trade-off is that longshots miss far more often than they hit.In the app: Nail a longshot and you will be telling that story for weeks — and it cost you only tokens to try.
- Fade
- “Fade” is slang for calling against something — the crowd, a hyped favourite, or a friend’s loud pick. If everyone is piling onto Yes and you think they are wrong, you fade it by backing No. Fading well is the contrarian’s edge: you win biggest when the crowd is most confidently mistaken.In the app: Fade your overconfident mate’s “lock,” then enjoy the silence in the chat when you are right. It is only tokens.
Want the fuller picture? Read how OmnidiaMarket works or the beginner’s guide to prediction markets.
Virtual tokens only. No real money. No cash-out. Just bragging rights. 18+.